Can you continue to deny that you're an addict if your New Year's resolutions are about poker?

I have made three poker-related resolutions for the new year. I want to keep track of whether my success and failure is dependent on how many hours I have logged at the table to that point. We all get tired, I want to make sure it's not wrecking my game. I am, however, giving up on meals and travel in my hourly rate; I've decided it's not meaningful.

I also want to mathematically evaluate 4-5 key hands after each session and I found a cool free download (pokerstove.com) to use. I’ve been playing NL for a year now and still don’t know what to do with a pair and a straight draw. (Seriously, it looks great when it flops and I get killed with it all the time.) I guess what I'm saying is I'd like to learn from key hands each session and make sure I understand all the mathematics involved for the next time I run into a similar situation.

Lastly, I want to have a better command of what I like to call “defensive odds.” An example: when the third heart comes out, there’s a 40% chance someone was dealt two more to make a flush. This will help me improve the math which is what I like most about my game lately. I’m getting much better at saying stuff like “25% of the time my opponent has AA, 25% of the time it’s QQ, and half the time it’s AK or AQ. Therefore my JJ is a (.2 * .5 + .5 * .5 = 35%) long term winner. Therefore I can or cannot call the all-in based on the pot.

In fact, I would love to get to a point where I can employ a few game-theory moves. This would be something like figuring out the optimal bluffing percentage when three hearts hit the board. There is certainly a lot more to poker than math, but I wonder if you can get to a point where you bluff every third time (or whatever) and you could even tell your opponent: "I go all-in everytime three suits hit the board and the second hand of my watch is in the last 20 seconds of the minute. Try and guess If I've really got it or not." Sometimes you've got the flush, sometimes you don't. If you can find what they call the Nash Equilibrium, it wouldn't matter if you told your opponents; they wouldn't be able to beat you (mathematically). We'll see if I can get there. Pot size and stack size obviously have a lot to do with the calculation.

I know, what a dork.

Stay tuned.

Finally; a Reversal of Fortune.

Well, after a long NL drought I finally got loose at Harrah’s to the tune of $1,500. I played some very good $2-5 NL poker for about 15 hours waiting for my Christmas morning flight to the Ps house and am only upset about two plays that I made. I flopped three sets and got paid on all three.

Here’s the hand of the night. I’m dealt KK in early position with about $600 in chips ($2-5 NL). I make it $25 to go. I get a raise to $50 from Debbie on the button. This is both good and bad. She is extremely solid and reads people very, very well. In fact, I’m positive she’s gotten the best of me over the past year. The more I think about it, the more I think she's at the top of my list of folks to avoid going heads-up against. Unless I’ve got Kings :)

The nice part about her re-raise is I now know she has a pocket pair, 10s or higher, or AK. I’d bet my stack on it. I’m a huge favorite against a random mix of those hands and I know she’ll lay it down to a big re-raise if she’s beat, so I just call. If I do anything else she puts me on a hand immediately and the party’s over.

Flop: K82. Now that’s just not fair.

I check to her (she’s behind me). I think I can get another $75 out of her, but am not hoping for much more. I think she bet $60. I figure she’s still too smart to call a raise with anything but AK or AA, and since if she had AK, the flopped King would have been of the case variety, so I again pass on the raise.

Turn (K82): 8. Sheesh. Now I’m virtually unbeatable and am very willing to take my chances against AA. I check, she checks. I rule out AA as a possibility. Now I’ve got the nuts (I know, 88, blah, blah) and my perfect river card becomes 10, J, or Q.

River (K828): J. Sweet Maria. I think for a while and come out with $45. My thinking is that she’s not calling a big bet if she’s way behind, but if she has JJ, an 8, or is slow-playing AA, this gives her plenty of room to come over the top of me. She makes it $250 and the star-bangled banner begins playing in my head.

I’ve got $400 left and she’s got enough to call every bit of it. I’m still concerned she will lay her hand down so I take a minute and without any of the BS that guys try like “well I guess I have to go all-in” I silently move all my chips in the middle. She calls and says “I’ve gotta call, do you have KK?”

Jesus woman; are you staring directly into my soul?? She turns over JJ and I turn over KK and she looks mildly disappointed but not all that surprised.

All I can really say is getting all her chips was a dear diary moment for yours truly but it took some pretty ridiculous cards.

Unholy

My recent experience at NL has can only be described as unholy; I’ve been losing $20 an hour for two months. Fortunately, my Pot Limit Omaha experiment (what a game; wow) has been going OK and has served to preserve my sanity but I just can’t figure how to snap the NL slump. It’s as if everyone has signed an agreement to raise me on the turn with the nuts anytime they are in my pot. And of course after the 3rd or 4th time in a row I talk myself into thinking “surely some of these must be bluffs.” So I look them up and they’re not. But I knew that; I'm just getting frustrated.

I just dropped $500 at Harrah’s and I honestly believe I played perfect. I’m not the type of guy that’s dropping a bunch of brilliant $300 bluffs, but I’ve got a solid style with what I think are very few leaks. It’s just not working. I vowed long ago to not tell bad beat stories but the stuff that’s happening just doesn’t add up. At least it’s not happening online so I’m not tempted to start expounding conspiracy theories with the rest of the nuts out there.

Medic

I'm learning that Pot Limit Omaha is one massive high wire act. Actually more like a big fun house mirror. It's a world in which top full houses get laid down to big raises and perfectly played hands can loose you $2,000. Naked nut straights are marginal hands and top pairs are meaningless. Bottom sets will break you and when you get the nuts, take a picure, 'cause it aint gonna last long. After a hold’em hand you can usually say "there's your mistake", or as a previous boss was wont to say, "there's your sign". PLO is much different.

And these guys are hilarious. Yesterday a guy gets SMOKED for about $3,200 with AAK7; he flops top set, turns the nut straight and loses to a flush on the river. He's sitting there in disbelief as an EIGHT THOUSAND DOLLAR POT IN WHICH FLOPPED THE NUTS AND THEN TURNED THE NUTS gets shipped to a guy with an ENORMOUS wrap/flush draw (129 outs or so). The table gets kind of quiet like someone just died or something; out of nowhere Al mutters "Medic".

I didn't stop laughing for 15 minutes.

(The winner flopped a wrap and the nut flush draw, turns the same nut straight, and rivers the nut flush. Medic indeed)

Pushing my Luck at PLO

$5-$5 PLO: KQ54 double suited in the small blind. Call $15 PF. Pot: $60.

Flop: 632. Hello there, nut straight. Someone is not going to be happy (but it might be me...) I figure I can't just bet it, what fun would that be? Let's have a little fun instead (check). Bet from the end of $60, 1 other caller, I call.

Turn: (632) 9. This is a good card. I check again and the original better tries $200. I come over the top for $600 and he looks at me like "how could that have helped?!" He calls the $600.

River: (6329) Q Another beatiful "clean" card. Amazingly, my naked nut straight held up the whole way. I launch the rest of my chips into the pot, maybe $575 or so. He doesn't like it but calls and berates me for not betting the nut straight on the flop when he sees it.

He's basically right; it's amazing the kind of trouble you can get into flopping the nut straight. It's trouble. But it was a fun hand.

WHEN CAN I CALL?!

First a little background. We've got the loosest, wildest player at the table (Nick). He's also very good however, which makes him very, very dangerous. $1,000 swings every hour or so is pretty normal. He bluffs constantly, but gets paid off on big hands because no one believes him. The seat to the right of him is always empty, because every time he plays, he plays for $50. (That poor soul tries to play for $5, then Nick makes it $50. Constantly. You get the picture). He's having a pretty good night and has a pretty good stack going (maybe $3,000 or so). I've got maybe $800.

Anyway, I make it $45 to go with 99. I get 3 callers. (Nick has very much loosened up the table as you can see.) I'm on the button.

The flop: 972 rainbow. Nick (seat 1) checks and the 2 seat bets $100. The Star Bangled Banner begins playing in my head. Seat 3 folds, I call, and Nick calls. Pot: $500.

Turn: (972) 5 (now there are two diamonds). Looks harmless enough. The 2 seat senses something's up but still bets $100 and I've got him on an overpair (10s?) or maybe just a 9. I figure enough is enough, let's get him all in. I come over the top for another $200 for a total of $300. This is enough to put him all in.

Nick then comes over the top of me for all my chips, another $300 or so (huh, who, what??) and I can't believe my good fortune. I've got top set and he's putting a move on me! Seat 2 looks pretty unhappy but calls, maybe hoping to hit his two outer, and I'm wondering only one thing, WHEN CAN I CALL?? After I think about it for about half a second, I figure Nick for an overpair or an underset, or simply a complete and total bluff, which was very possible. I say, as clearly as I can muster, "I CALL".

This is when my world collapses. Ever seen one of those Van Gough paintings where the walls are melting? Like that. He rolls over 86 for the nut straight (FOR $45 PREFLOP? SWEET JESUS), the only two cards that can beat me. It knocks the wind out of me. I think I actually coughed when I saw it. So I'm screwed. Oh wait, there's another card to come. Holy smokes; how about that? HOW MANY NINES ARE IN THIS DECK?!? There were four, and I now know where each and every one of them is.

Nick hasn't seen my cards yet, but he's looking at the river and while I'm reasonably sure I'm not psychic, when that 2nd 9 hits the board, I hear his brain clearly say "mother fuc%er". I say, "I've got all the nines," and he hits the table with his fist as hard as I've seen in a while. This guy's wound a little tight as you can tell, but it was pretty cool that his pounding the table had the effect of attracting 6 or 7 people from adjoining tables (and the poker room supervisor) to watch me stack his chips.

Mr. WSOP Qualifier

Sunday @ Harrah's; it was a thing of beauty. I had the Harrah's WSOP qualifier at my table and he clearly had me on "chump" cause he thought he could push me around whenever the mood struck him. I caught his hand in the cookie jar several times. My favorite:

Me: AK ($30 preflop)

Him: Call (With 3 others)

Flop: AK7 (I'm behind him)

Him: Check

Me: Check (I know he's just itching to push me around, but I know that patience is the play here ...)

Turn: 3

Him: Check

Me: A very cautious $80...

Him: $200

Before he even gets the last syllable of hundred out, I say all in. So he's stuck doling out red chips that he knows are already mine because there's NO WAY he's calling. Caught yet again by the chump at the end of the table. How's that feel, Mr. WSOP? (He folds)

I could BARELY keep from flashing a big toothy grin at him.

A 10 Year Old in a 15 Year Old’s Body

There is this little scrawny puke of a kid at Harrah's that honestly acts as if he is 10 years old when he loses. Last week he called a loose player’s all-in with 33Q on the board and he had KK. The guy had a 3; DUH. Now he's WHINING about how he just lost his rent money (I tell him he shouldn't be playing with his rent money) and he starts berating the dealer and I tell him "man, seriously, shut up" because I'm friends with the gal dealing. Anyway, needless to say, we are now enemies, but he is still 10 years old. I don't mean to pick on anyone, but he pushes ALL my buttons.

On Wednesday (three days later), we’re playing and the flop comes KQ7 and he bets with a K and I call with QJ, knowing I'm beat, but just dying to bust this little shit.

Turn: (KQ7) one Jack; no lines, no waiting. He's scared of me because he knows I know what I'm doing, so he checks and I overbet the pot. He folds and I rake about $80. I say "nice check, all I had was AJ", and show him the J. "You showed weakness." His face turns red.

Later: I've got QQ and raise preflop. He's got TT. The flop comes low; we've both got an overpair. He bets and I come over the top and he thinks and folds while saying, "have you got me beat?" and shows his tens. I say, "oh, yeah" but I refuse to show him my cards (I'm been showing some of my hands) to make it look like a bluff. He's LIVID and I cannot keep my smile to myself, which only serves to tilt him further.

About 30 minutes later, I flop a set to his raised pot (is there anything more fun than that??), and couldn't be more pleased with myself. He's basically determined to not let me "bluff" him and keeps betting, and guess what, I keep calling. When I turn over my set of FOURS, I thought he was going to have a stroke right there at the table.

It was about the most fun I've ever had at the poker table.

Pretty Boy

We've got a $5-$10 limit seat open and they call "Is Vincent still in the room?" I laugh and tell the table, “We'll make big money if someone named Vincent sits down” (laughter). Then I turn around to look at the people waiting, and there's this kid with this ridiculously fancy dress shirt on and I say, “Never mind, we want pretty boy.” (more laughter).

Well, don't worry; no decision necessary, it's the same guy. So I say to the table, I'll bet someone a red chip we're about to hear the phrase "sir, please take your chips out of the rack." The dealer stops us from betting of course, but ol' Vince sits down with that damn plastic rack just sitting there. (Giggling is heard; ol' Vince looks around, feeling a little paranoid). The dealer even gives him a minute, but eventually plays along and starts to say "Sir, please take..." and can't even get it out before half the table cracks up. It was awesome.