Can you continue to deny that you're an addict if your New Year's resolutions are about poker?

I have made three poker-related resolutions for the new year. I want to keep track of whether my success and failure is dependent on how many hours I have logged at the table to that point. We all get tired, I want to make sure it's not wrecking my game. I am, however, giving up on meals and travel in my hourly rate; I've decided it's not meaningful.

I also want to mathematically evaluate 4-5 key hands after each session and I found a cool free download (pokerstove.com) to use. I’ve been playing NL for a year now and still don’t know what to do with a pair and a straight draw. (Seriously, it looks great when it flops and I get killed with it all the time.) I guess what I'm saying is I'd like to learn from key hands each session and make sure I understand all the mathematics involved for the next time I run into a similar situation.

Lastly, I want to have a better command of what I like to call “defensive odds.” An example: when the third heart comes out, there’s a 40% chance someone was dealt two more to make a flush. This will help me improve the math which is what I like most about my game lately. I’m getting much better at saying stuff like “25% of the time my opponent has AA, 25% of the time it’s QQ, and half the time it’s AK or AQ. Therefore my JJ is a (.2 * .5 + .5 * .5 = 35%) long term winner. Therefore I can or cannot call the all-in based on the pot.

In fact, I would love to get to a point where I can employ a few game-theory moves. This would be something like figuring out the optimal bluffing percentage when three hearts hit the board. There is certainly a lot more to poker than math, but I wonder if you can get to a point where you bluff every third time (or whatever) and you could even tell your opponent: "I go all-in everytime three suits hit the board and the second hand of my watch is in the last 20 seconds of the minute. Try and guess If I've really got it or not." Sometimes you've got the flush, sometimes you don't. If you can find what they call the Nash Equilibrium, it wouldn't matter if you told your opponents; they wouldn't be able to beat you (mathematically). We'll see if I can get there. Pot size and stack size obviously have a lot to do with the calculation.

I know, what a dork.

Stay tuned.

Finally; a Reversal of Fortune.

Well, after a long NL drought I finally got loose at Harrah’s to the tune of $1,500. I played some very good $2-5 NL poker for about 15 hours waiting for my Christmas morning flight to the Ps house and am only upset about two plays that I made. I flopped three sets and got paid on all three.

Here’s the hand of the night. I’m dealt KK in early position with about $600 in chips ($2-5 NL). I make it $25 to go. I get a raise to $50 from Debbie on the button. This is both good and bad. She is extremely solid and reads people very, very well. In fact, I’m positive she’s gotten the best of me over the past year. The more I think about it, the more I think she's at the top of my list of folks to avoid going heads-up against. Unless I’ve got Kings :)

The nice part about her re-raise is I now know she has a pocket pair, 10s or higher, or AK. I’d bet my stack on it. I’m a huge favorite against a random mix of those hands and I know she’ll lay it down to a big re-raise if she’s beat, so I just call. If I do anything else she puts me on a hand immediately and the party’s over.

Flop: K82. Now that’s just not fair.

I check to her (she’s behind me). I think I can get another $75 out of her, but am not hoping for much more. I think she bet $60. I figure she’s still too smart to call a raise with anything but AK or AA, and since if she had AK, the flopped King would have been of the case variety, so I again pass on the raise.

Turn (K82): 8. Sheesh. Now I’m virtually unbeatable and am very willing to take my chances against AA. I check, she checks. I rule out AA as a possibility. Now I’ve got the nuts (I know, 88, blah, blah) and my perfect river card becomes 10, J, or Q.

River (K828): J. Sweet Maria. I think for a while and come out with $45. My thinking is that she’s not calling a big bet if she’s way behind, but if she has JJ, an 8, or is slow-playing AA, this gives her plenty of room to come over the top of me. She makes it $250 and the star-bangled banner begins playing in my head.

I’ve got $400 left and she’s got enough to call every bit of it. I’m still concerned she will lay her hand down so I take a minute and without any of the BS that guys try like “well I guess I have to go all-in” I silently move all my chips in the middle. She calls and says “I’ve gotta call, do you have KK?”

Jesus woman; are you staring directly into my soul?? She turns over JJ and I turn over KK and she looks mildly disappointed but not all that surprised.

All I can really say is getting all her chips was a dear diary moment for yours truly but it took some pretty ridiculous cards.