Men Behaving Badly

December has been kicking my ass. Not in a “sneak up on me and whack me over the head with a shovel kind of way”, but in a very overt “hold still, this is going to hurt and if you move we’re just going to swing harder” kind of way. No apologies, just pain. 11 losing sessions in a row. Since I’m on a roll, I’ll drop this little stat. Chance of losing 11 consecutive sessions (based on my results this year): .0117%. For you fellow dorks out there, this is a 4 Sigma event but not outside predictable poker scenarios.

Anyway, that’s not the point, it’s context for the story. Another important note before reading on: this hand/post is not a bad beat story; I would not do that do you.

$2-5NL; $450 in front of me. Loose game, almost every pot is raised PF, lots of money on the table. Down $700 for the day from unholy beats; one in particular which I will not subject you to.

Back to the story. Hero has TT on the button. BB makes it $35, two calls, it’s on me. One of my favorite moves this year has been make it $135 in this situation with any two cards. It’s a break even proposition (75 attempts this year for net loss of $120, -$1 per) but it’s a great way to convince others you’re crazy. And I’ve already done it twice at this table and showed both times.

So, $105 in the pot and I make it $150. BB’s brow immediately furrows. Uh-oh. Now I’ll readily admit I’m not a “I’ve got your tell; you scratched your ear, I call” kind of dude, but I do know this is a pretty bad sign. Guys don’t give away this kind of information if they’re genuinely concerned. This is a relatively clear “weak means strong” type of tell in my book. In fact, the smart part of my brain is already sounding the alarm: Whoop! Whoop! Whoop! Whoop! Problem is, there are other parts of my brain. And on this particular day I'm using the term "brain" very, very loosely as a proxy for a mechanism that has the possibility of coming to intelligent conclusions.

Now he pushes all-in with a shrug, like “well, not really sure what to do, I guess I’ll bet a thousand dollars.” Come on. The other two guys have basically folded out of turn so I'm free to react to this move outloud and do because I’m running THAT BADLY this month and lost my composure a week ago. I make a very frustrated comment that sounds a lot like “Oh, yeah, you were confused for a minute but now you realize that two Kings is a pretty good hand.”

Let me repeat that. I say two Kings OUTLOUD. (And yes, this gentleman has two Kings.)

Then I go in the tank. I’ve got $300 left, pot is now $525 or so. The alarm is still sounding (Whoop! Whoop!) but I begin the process of desperately trying to justify a call:

Maybe we (the devil and angel portions of my brain have started a debate) have odds to call even if he has an overpair.
(Nope: spend $300 to win 20% of $500 in the LR)

Maybe he has AK!
(Come on.)

We’ve already got $150 in the pot!
(Try again, we’re better than that)

So I’m just sitting there trying to figure out how to rationalize walking out into traffic. Then disaster strikes.

Devil: He bluffed last week!!
Angel: Shit. I remember; you’re right.
Devil: We’re calling!
Angel: Shit.
Devil: Count out $300!
Angel: Shit.

That’s now it happened. My buddy next to me summed it up perfectly; “if you weren’t running so bad, you fold immediately.” It’s true.

Why is that? I don’t really know. I can fold in that situation. EASILY. I’ve done it many times. But I didn’t this time. I didn’t trust my own instincts even after I said he had kings OUTLOUD. Why? Please send comments to : yes_chuck_you're_an_idiot@gmail.com

Very frustrating.

Somewhat changing subjects and to end on a positive note, I’ve been tracking “calling all in” events this year. My first 16 times resulted in a loss of $4,340. I identified this leak and scolded myself. Have you seen the scene in DaVinci Code where Silas beats himself bloody? The last 17 have been a profit of $1,015. $5,000 leak plugged. Check.

Last week of course the tally was 16 for $1,465.

Sigh.