>This post has a target market of 4 people. And they don’t even play poker. Read on if you want, I don’t care.
Have you ever sat at the poker table and thought about how people’s brains work? I guess what I really mean is have you ever wonder thought about why they work so well?
A typical hand:
Top Pair bets the flop.
Flush Draw calls.
Top Pair bets the turn.
Flush Draw calls.
River is blank and now Top Pair checks.
Flush Draw checks as well and Top Pair takes it down.
Let’s talk about what happens in Top Pair’s head. You won’t get what I’m saying if you don’t really think about it, so try.
Top Pair flops his big pair and concludes he is ahead. In and of itself this is pretty amazing if you think about it. He didn’t analyze this specific situation before the game, so how does he know? This comes so natural to you as the reader that the only way you understand the magnitude is to stop to think about it. Think about trying to explain this to someone that doesn't play cards. Or a computer. Or a dog. Try to imagine that conversation; it would be very hard to put your thought process into words.
And yet a good player would probably come pretty close to guessing the percentage of the time that he’s going to have the best hand here. Think about all the combinations of cards that exist. And yet he’s pretty sure. Change the board to all hearts and his antenna instinctively go way up. He knows his chances of winning that pot or more importantly his EV of that hand have dropped precipitously. Yet he probably can’t some close to explaining why he knows any of this without saying something like “I just knew” or “I have experience”.
Fast forward to the river. Top Pair checked because he feels that the chance that he gets paid when ahead is not worth the risk of the other guy raising the shit out him on what is now a relatively very big street. He may very well be checking with every intention of calling a river bet because there is enough of a chance that even when facing a bet he’s still ahead enough to make the call worthwhile or that his opponent bluffs enough to do it. This is a whole new level of thinking. He’s considering the number of opponents, his cards, the board, who his opponents are, maybe even the time of day, game, stakes, etc. He most likely comes to his best conclusion in a couple seconds without even really trying.
How exactly is he pulling that off?
What I’m really asking here for explanation of exactly how this works. How exactly does the brain do this? It’s not enough to say “instinct” or “it’s the way he plays”. Do you know what I’m asking?
What about the really good players? Why are they better? (By the way, if any of you idiots just thought “well, they’re just so lucky”, you may want to reconsider whether or not you're ever going to be good at this.)
Even they don’t really know. This is also amazing. “What’s your secret?” you might ask them. And they would probably come up with a couple nuggets of wisdom if they tried, but it wouldn’t really answer your question.
Here’s my theory. (You knew it was coming)
I think the brain does an enormous amount of work that we are not aware of. The subconscious is constantly churning out work to keep us competitive and we are not aware of the overwhelming majority of this activity. It’s why you come up with ideas in the shower. Or driving. Or sleeping. ("Let me sleep on it." It’s a real thing).
Driving is a good example of what I'm talking about. We all drive to work without even thinking about it. Ever get to work and think, jeez, I don’t even remember driving here; I was thinking about that jerk at work the whole time. Thank God I got here. But you never really get yourself into trouble doing what for most of us is the most dangerous thing we do all day without consciously thinking about it. I maintain you are very close to 100% competent while actively thinking about something else.
I’d say your "thinking part" of your brain was able to delegate driving to the back of your brain while it worked on something important. The 16 year old taking his driving test can’t do that. I’d say that we work on multiple levels of consciousness most of which we’re not aware of. When something happens that needs the frontal lobe’s attention, it will get it. When a dog runs out in front of your car, your subconscious alerts the thinking part that it needs its attention. I think this works a lot like hierarchies at work. Subordinates do their thing until they have a question. I think it’s very similar. It’s so similar that I wonder if that’s why we set up hierarchies that way at work. Is that the structure that we understand? Not sure about that one, but it’s an interesting question.
So anyway, back to MY answer to my question. I don’t know if it’s right. I think that we have subconscious memory of the past hands that we’ve played and the brain uses pattern recognition in a very complicated and robust way. High IQ matters, and in my opinion is the existence of better pattern recognition “software”. Cross high IQ with lots of hands in your subconscious memory and you’re on your way.
The really good players are also using memories of players, tells, etc. and are not really aware of it. A guy scratches his face and the top 1% of players feel something and just check instead of betting. Or the idea to bet big enters his brain. He may not even know how or why.
So for any of you that have been holding out hope that I'm a normal person, that ship just sailed. Also, this post is totally absent of my "you thinking that hand is lucky is your brain trying to create the illusion of control over the kind of situation (gambling) that by definition you have relatively less control over" talk. I'm resisting the urge to continue pontificating, just because I like you, Internet, and at this point you've had it with me.
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5 comments:
This was a very interesting last post sir, a great way to end your blog. And but that, I mean, "Yes, I've had it with you, nice knowing ya."
I think the true answer to your question is, REPETITION. Bear with me on this, I'll explain. This is a pretty simple answer, if youre looking for something more scientific, like "synapses," Ive got nothin. Ask John Rivera, that mans a walking encyclopedia.
Now to back up my claim. You used driving to work as an example. Yes, you can not even remember if you stopped at that red light on your way in. And yes, the whole drive can be a blur.
Now, take that same "drive," but this time on a trip, out of town. Why now, all of a sudden, do you have to pay attention? The same motor skills apply, its the same hand eye coordination. Does your car suddenly steer differently now that youve left your neighborhood?
No, you have to pay attention now, because you are in unafamiliar territory. You have to pay attention to street signs etc. Now, youre not capable of making driving while half asleep, simply because you havent done it thousands of times.
REPETITION!
I'd like to use golf as an example. I know you dont play, so you may not grasp the whole concept, but youll understand.
Have you ever watched golf at all? If you have, you would have noticed that they dont think about 4 foot putts. They walk up, and knock it in. Why? Its routine. It also has to do with muscle memory.
Heres an interesting fact. Did you know that the human brain works in 3s? If golfing for example, if you take 3 practice swings, barring some catastorphe, the 4th one will be the EXACT same swing as the first 3. So, take three perfect practice swings, address the ball, and it should be the "perfect" shot.
REPITITION!
put yourself in the same situation over and over and over again, and youll learn how to react while paying less attention, and still do it right. That also explains how you played so well during that super long session. you were halucinating, but it didnt matter, it was repitition.
PS
we all knew you werent normal by any stretch of the imagination.
This was reasonably lucid; I didn't know you had it in you.
Your answer seems to be repetition, but what does that mean exactly? You can't teach a new player by telling them repetition. They probably know they'll eventually get it after repeating the events as you already have, but you're really not answering my question.
In other words, yes, repetition is an important part of the equation, but how is your brain using the repetition to arrive at the correct answer on the hundredth trial?
It's another way to ask how would you teach a computer to form the same conclusions that you arrive at so naturally?
fuck that, ask rivera. lol
First and foremost, Jon Rivera is an intelligent man no doubt, but also a guy that is completely full of shit most of the time. He is off on his facts so often it's ridiculous.... But sure, he's a walking encyclopedia (just ask him). That aside...
What I think you are asking for is something you already know, Chuck. You want someone to explain to you, in simple language (as if explaining to a 5th grader) why John Adams knows the things he knows so intuitively, and why Daniel called yesterday with A-high for $400 after the flop with only $50 invested against Z's Q-high. Well, the simple truth is, unless you go and talk directly to a neuro-spychologist who specializes in this sort of thing, your answer, the one you have espoused to me on several occasions, and have stated again briefly in this post, is adequate. And further, probably a dumbed down version of what such a neuro-geek would tell you.
This is just not the sort of thing that one can be directly taught. You can't ask John what his thought process was at this moment or that and expect any great revelation... his asnwer will be superficial, regular. You will think to yourself, "well that sounds like my thought process." Because John doesn't even know. And if he is honest enough to say, "I just had a feeling"... well, good luck deciphering that.
The best that you can do, I firmly believe, is continue to rationalize as well as you can at the table, make fewer mistakes than your opponents, and pray to your god of pitiful poker playing wet blanket pains in the ass that he graces you with a high enough IQ, clever enough synapses, and potent enough dendrites that the next time a situation arises where you rationally are not quite sure of what to do, something in your brain magically says, "Chuck! He doesn't have it! He was on the flush draw the whole time! He's buying it! RAISE!" and you trust that magical voice, or feeling, enough to do so (and that's another issue).
However, if you do figure out what process takes place, or how to stimulate that part of your brain that makes these split second, subconcious decisions... write it down, remember it, and don't forget your pal, Mike.
Sorry I'm not more helpful. I just think that this is, although very interesting, something that haunts you for no good reason. You've clearly put a great deal of thought into it, and have come to hold some very seemingly valid and worthwhile views. I'm not sure what lengths you have really gone to in studying the brain or the way it works, etc., but I would wager that your own answers are not far from correct.
Take it easy,
No Phil
P.s. Interesting article... not necessarily related though, about new findings as to how the brain works. I say not necessarily related, but while reading this article I couldn't help but think of possible ways that these findings, if correct, might effect your theories.
article: http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2007/02/070227105247.htm
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